Get the most out of your interglacial sweet spot

Every few weeks, when logging into WordPress, the home of my blog, I see on the “Hot Community Posts” one blog or another, with a guest appearance by Steven Goddard.  Mostly, though, I’ve seen his name come up when I’m searching about global warming topics.  He posts most regularly at a blog called the register, and most of his work inevitably “poo-poos” human impacted global warming and climate change.  He has lots of graphs and trends.  I got curious as to who the heck this lonely voice in the wilderness is, so I did some searching.  I couldn’t find much, but I did run across other “Goddard” hunters.  They ranged from the curious like Martin at layscientist, who ran into dead ends, to the ridiculous like the International Journal of Inactivism blog where wild stories abound from claims that he will say anything for money, to the theory that Goddard is one of a line of fictional “Steves”.  I can’t say for sure if Goddard is a scientific “gun-for-hire”, but the thing that surprised me most was the fact that Steven is not alone.  Virtually 97% of the scientists surveyed believe human-induced global climate change is real, but there is a huge amount of internet activity coming from the 3% who disagree.

Let’s take CO2 levels for example.  Is CO2 causing temperature change, or is the rising temperature causing CO2 levels to rise?  I’m not qualified to say, but I did notice that both sides use similar graphs to prove their point.  It doesn’t matter if you look at a “not due to human activity” blog, (example 1, example 2)

Graph from Global Warming Hoax blog.  Note the Present CO2 levels

Graph from Global Warming Hoax blog. Note the Present CO2 levels

Graph from Watts up with that blog.  Again, note the present day CO2 levels

Graph from Watts up with that blog. Again, note the present day CO2 levels

or if you look at a “human-induced climate change” blog; (example 1, example 2), the graphs show the same thing, CO2 levels in present time are far and away higher than anything within the last 4 ice age cycles. Neither side denies this fact.

From Global Warming Facts blog.  CO2 Levels present day, way up!

From Global Warming Facts blog. CO2 Levels present day, way up!

Part of an article by Stuart Gaffin on the Reuters Blogs.  Again, note the huge spike in CO2, present day.

Reuters Blog post by Stuart Gaffin. Again, note huge spike in CO2, present day.

By the way, I strongly believe that humans are contributing to the changes in our global environment, on top of the normal, albeit complex “geological” cycle.

In the blog post where I found the last graph, Stuart Gaffin, a climate researcher at Columbia University says:

“Moreover right now we are in a cool phase of both the 11-year sunspot cycle and also the cool phase of the powerful oceanic El Nino cycle so it’s not surprising that the last few years haven’t broken all-time records. The sunspot and El Nino cycles will turn around and warm again. Meanwhile CO2 and other greenhouse gases continue to grow unabated.”
“The warming of the 20th century has coincided with 20th century increases in CO2. Also the current rate of CO2 and other greenhouse gases increases are extraordinarily unprecedented during the last 2000 years of human civilization which is no doubt the most important period to consider for modern society.”

The second thing I see in the graphs from both sides is that most of earth’s history (at least in the last 400K years), has been in ice age conditions, with much shorter, relatively stable interglacial periods.  Our current interglacial sweet spot (one of the longest on record), where all of modern human “civilization” fits nicely, has lasted about 10,000 -11,000 years.  It seems to me that making that period last as long as possible would be in our best interest.

Throwing unprecidented levels of CO2 into the equation, something that both sides document as being true, seems like a dangerous wrench to toss into the mix.  We have no historical data on what this would do.  It’s never happened before.  Are you willing to take a chance?  I’m not.

Chad M. Wall

Advertisements

5 responses to “Get the most out of your interglacial sweet spot

  1. I love a mystery. What if Steven Goddard isn’t a gun for hire but simply a rebel rouser, like me. Only far less conscientious and wise! (More likely, he’s someone who lacks the testicular fortitude to be open and out there about what he believes.)

    Like this post, Chad. I am not willing to take the chance either.

  2. ecotrashsolutions

    Reb,
    He might be that, but I have my suspicions as to his physical existence. I think he may the be the Ed Wood of the climate change isn’t human-induced community.
    Chad M. Wall

  3. ecotrashsolutions:

    By the way, my “secret history of El Reg’s Arctic ice kerfuffle” is more about spoofing the denialists’ insinuations of some Vast Worldwide Warmist Conspiracy, than about “say[ing] anything for money” (the “wad of notes” part notwithstanding…). I found it odd that there are people actually trying to defend Goddard’s original claims even after Goddard had retracted them, so I came up with this little tale.

    And, Steve Milloy and Steve McIntyre are pretty real — there are even lots of photos and videos of Milloy all over the web. 🙂

    bi

    • I did enjoy the tongue-in-cheek story. I saw the same thing, defense of Goddard’s original claims. While I agree that the conspiracy approach on either side is non-productive, anyway you want to consider it, this is a pretty nice interglacial period, I’d like to keep it around for a while longer if we can.
      Chad M. Wall

  4. ecotrashsolutions:

    While I agree that the conspiracy approach on either side is non-productive,

    I won’t really disagree with that. There’s no really hard evidence that many of the people in stonewalling on climate mitigation are deliberately lying.

    However, there’s quite a good amount of evidence that many of them are engaged in an organized stonewalling movement, and that they’re advocating the use of, well, morally dubious tactics to promote their cause — a case in point is Tom Harris’s speech on “information sharing” and “coordinated local activism”. But that’s another story…

    bi

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s